my best friend is a son of a car dealer. even though he loves his parents and supports them actively in the success of their small business, he is not really passionate about cars themselves. actually, i would say that he would agree that cars are not the best solution to our modern transport needs and problems. consequently he always supported smarter mobility solutions. be it by commuting by train to his work place, by using his trendy bike where ever suitable and, last but not least, by approving important popular referendums and initiatives that promote public transport.
but now, due to his own success in his young professional career, he is being forced by his new employer to buy a representative middle class car. he may choose the model, which then will be financed by the company. but he may not choose the way he travels. and behind that there is an intricate system of structural misalignments, wrong incentives and utterly harmful status thinking. and then there is the highly urgent and pragmatic question: "what should he do?"
whatever car he will choose to buy, be it a more efficient or less efficient one, it will add up to the existing car insanity in multiple ways.
how would that alternative of the past would have looked like? he would take public transit for his every day´s commuting to work, take first class to client visits (also in order to be able to work during this time) and, if it is important for "representative" matters or for reasons of unattractive availability of public transport, have used a car from the company´s fleet or a business car from mobility.ch. that this alternative also makes a lot of practical sense to the company is obvious since it would save the investment cost from the car and gain valuable working time of its highly paid staff.
why then are so many companies promoting such a stupidity?
i wonder if he would have gotten the job, using my rhetoric and arguments (see also the older post: "my carbon battle of the year"). grudgingly accepting this, we will have to talk about the question of what car to buy... anyway, so what car should he now buy? assuming that he will be forced to buy a new car i forced myself into this issue. with some surprising results...
when i started going after this particular issue i soon found some very helpful ranking from the government (see graphics below, click to enlarge) as well as from non-governmental organizations (www.umweltautoliste.ch) which give handy and practical information regarding the environmental impact of cars in their respective class. so, that's easy, i think: he ought to buy the most fuel efficient that currently exists.
i got then a little bit aroused about this because it really pissed me off again. this is how environmentalism works... buy greener cars and you´ve done your best. buy more, save the environment? this cannot be it! this issue is at heart of this whole blog: mostly, small relative product improvements will not change the trajectory of an already unhealthy, unsustainable development path.
the biofuel scam
and upfront, another suggestion which i would not convey to him: choosing a so-called flexfuel engine that allow to power your car with biofuels. this is not a solution but a deterioration of the whole thing! i do not want to add more here but refer for further reading on this topic to the widely read essay "five myths of the agro-fuels transition" as well as the results from a recent oecd study ("is the cure worse than the disease?"; PDF, ca. 650 KB) and empa study regarding environmental impact on biofuels.
in between the lines: driving your average SUV with biofuels makes the insanity plain out cynical. mr. darbellay, swiss president of the conservative party cvp is powering his porsche cayenne with biofuel... i cannot resist to add that mr. darballey´s example is also the clue to the overwhelming success behind the agro-fuel boom: vested farming interests for massive re-arrangement and expansion of otherwise already so harmful farm subsidies. but this is another topic...
natural as well as biogas are as well not adequate solutions in this specific situation. they might make sense to power public bus fleets in huge cities with an appalling air pollution problem like found in Jakarta or other Asian megacities (natural gas burns very clean as regards many air pollutants). but due to their lower energy density and better suitability for other purposes (heating and electriciy generation) they are no solution to my friend´s car choice problem.
so what car to buy now ?!
so then just buy one of those hybrids!
i always dismissed the hype about the hybrid car, aka a car (symbolized by the toyota prius) powered by one or more electro motors which are either powered by an internal combustion engine or battery. it achieves a higher fuel efficiency than normal cars because during downhill and breaking fleeing energy can be brought back into practical work via the battery. i dismissed this technology because it throws so much new technology at a problem without really achieving significant gains.
eureka!
light struck me when i came across rechargeIT.org, a google sponsored project to turn hybrids into so-called plug-in electric vehicle (phev). a phev is a car with a connection to the electricity grid, which allows so recharging from the grid as well as from fuel in the tank (through an internal combustion engine or fuel cell) and is able to drive in electronic mode only.
the so incredibly "cool" perspective that struck me, is that this simple twist to this otherwise environmentally only incrementally better prius will eventually provide a path to massive penetration of renewable power. massive new capacities of wind and solar power cannot come online today because of their intermittent nature. "intermittent" means that they only provide power at certain times of the day and under certain conditions.
since it is not possible to store energy massively in any economically feasible way, the grid operator would be forced to invest ever larger sums into upgrading the existing grid to handle the more volatile power generation mix. these additional investment costs are probably never assumed when discussing the rapidly improving economic feasibility of renewable power such as solar and wind.
plug-it in
the solution to the biggest barrier to furhter large-scale development of renewable power is to treat the plug-in hybrid as a massive distributed power generation and storage system. all these phevs are leading the way to a merger of the two most massive energy conversion systems that humans have ever developed over time: the electric utility system and the light vehicle fleet. this would also correspond with the historic trend of converting more and more primary energy into the versatile form of electricity.
so when more and more phevs that are coming on road they would be able to provide more and more storage and backup power for renewable energy, thereby allowing the transition to a fundamentally more sustainable energy system.
so the little toyota prius is in itself only a small incremental improvement but it will eventually lead to a tipping point in the transformation of the otherwise decrepit and rotten car industry. after turning the car more and more into an electronic appliance we will now turn it into a massive energy backup power and storage system. in the future, fleet manager such as avis, hertz or mobility.ch will manage the availability of their fleet as well as sell vehicle to grid (v2g) power from the phev under their management to the grid operator. further, local utilities and/or car manufacturers will start to aggregate the collective v2g power of many phev they take under contract, e.g. provide free battery replacements to phev owners for reaping most of the power sale profits... so many new business opportunities emerging, even for the car bastards from detroit and stuttgart (by the way, the guys from japan are not treehuggers, either. recently toyota has joined the detroit three in lobbying against thougher us fuel standards as tom friedmann reports in the new york times.)
willett kempton of the university of delaware is the foremost thinker and researcher on this issue and lucidly presents and develops this idea further is his papers. he calculated with a eventual 25% penetration of phev to the overall car market in order to allow for a convergence of the two energy systems as well as to enable renewable power to come online in massive capacities. if i combine this sensible calculation with my demand-side objections to the car itself, we could envision a future with massively fewer cars. let's say we do away with the remaining 75% of the non-phevs...
i say this for the first time in my life: in this way, cars really could make sense!
next steps
we are not there yet, though. prius exists and are selling successfully. but toyota and honda, the two most successful hybrid producers, advise so far against the remodelling of their hybrid cars into plug-in hybrids since the batteries are not yet (big point) made for constant recharging and vehicle to grid operations. but some private freaks, corporate sponsored projects such as rechargeIt.org and eventually profit-driven business of existing hybrid producers (to see how they react to the new opportunity, go here) and others will bring phev and v2g business models to the market.
so, my dear friend, i would say: buy a hybrid. thereby you promote environmentally the most promising development option, rewarding the risks taken by the producers and leading to better understanding of the technology and falling unit costs. hopefully, the hybrid is one of those few incremental relative product improvements that lead the way to a disruptive innovation.
i hope though, that you will continue to play guitar and drink beer whilst riding train together with the blogger. that, by far, is the best additional fringe benefit of using public transport.
whatever car he will choose to buy, be it a more efficient or less efficient one, it will add up to the existing car insanity in multiple ways.
- first, and most importantly, is is not about the (fuel) efficiency of his new car, but about how effective this means of transportation is from an environmental and economical viewpoint.
- secondly, this little example will show us once again how difficult it is to promote really sustainable change in the way we move from A to B.
how would that alternative of the past would have looked like? he would take public transit for his every day´s commuting to work, take first class to client visits (also in order to be able to work during this time) and, if it is important for "representative" matters or for reasons of unattractive availability of public transport, have used a car from the company´s fleet or a business car from mobility.ch. that this alternative also makes a lot of practical sense to the company is obvious since it would save the investment cost from the car and gain valuable working time of its highly paid staff.
why then are so many companies promoting such a stupidity?
- first, because it always has been so and successful business guys need big business cars (probably a very important reason). a freaking self-fulfilling prophecy!
- secondly, because so many countries allow corporations to deduct their investments in cars from the tax bill and promote commuting by car with similar tax schemes.
- thirdly, a local case, the otherwise highly effective public transport operator is not actively and professionally enough going after companies with special offers (e.g. mobility packages for employees, etc.).
i wonder if he would have gotten the job, using my rhetoric and arguments (see also the older post: "my carbon battle of the year"). grudgingly accepting this, we will have to talk about the question of what car to buy... anyway, so what car should he now buy? assuming that he will be forced to buy a new car i forced myself into this issue. with some surprising results...
when i started going after this particular issue i soon found some very helpful ranking from the government (see graphics below, click to enlarge) as well as from non-governmental organizations (www.umweltautoliste.ch) which give handy and practical information regarding the environmental impact of cars in their respective class. so, that's easy, i think: he ought to buy the most fuel efficient that currently exists.
i got then a little bit aroused about this because it really pissed me off again. this is how environmentalism works... buy greener cars and you´ve done your best. buy more, save the environment? this cannot be it! this issue is at heart of this whole blog: mostly, small relative product improvements will not change the trajectory of an already unhealthy, unsustainable development path.
the biofuel scam
and upfront, another suggestion which i would not convey to him: choosing a so-called flexfuel engine that allow to power your car with biofuels. this is not a solution but a deterioration of the whole thing! i do not want to add more here but refer for further reading on this topic to the widely read essay "five myths of the agro-fuels transition" as well as the results from a recent oecd study ("is the cure worse than the disease?"; PDF, ca. 650 KB) and empa study regarding environmental impact on biofuels.
in between the lines: driving your average SUV with biofuels makes the insanity plain out cynical. mr. darbellay, swiss president of the conservative party cvp is powering his porsche cayenne with biofuel... i cannot resist to add that mr. darballey´s example is also the clue to the overwhelming success behind the agro-fuel boom: vested farming interests for massive re-arrangement and expansion of otherwise already so harmful farm subsidies. but this is another topic...
natural as well as biogas are as well not adequate solutions in this specific situation. they might make sense to power public bus fleets in huge cities with an appalling air pollution problem like found in Jakarta or other Asian megacities (natural gas burns very clean as regards many air pollutants). but due to their lower energy density and better suitability for other purposes (heating and electriciy generation) they are no solution to my friend´s car choice problem.
so what car to buy now ?!
so then just buy one of those hybrids!
i always dismissed the hype about the hybrid car, aka a car (symbolized by the toyota prius) powered by one or more electro motors which are either powered by an internal combustion engine or battery. it achieves a higher fuel efficiency than normal cars because during downhill and breaking fleeing energy can be brought back into practical work via the battery. i dismissed this technology because it throws so much new technology at a problem without really achieving significant gains.
- first, we have cars that run on 3l for 100 km already for so long and
- secondly, individual car transport itself does not make great environmental and economic sense to me.
eureka!
light struck me when i came across rechargeIT.org, a google sponsored project to turn hybrids into so-called plug-in electric vehicle (phev). a phev is a car with a connection to the electricity grid, which allows so recharging from the grid as well as from fuel in the tank (through an internal combustion engine or fuel cell) and is able to drive in electronic mode only.
the so incredibly "cool" perspective that struck me, is that this simple twist to this otherwise environmentally only incrementally better prius will eventually provide a path to massive penetration of renewable power. massive new capacities of wind and solar power cannot come online today because of their intermittent nature. "intermittent" means that they only provide power at certain times of the day and under certain conditions.
since it is not possible to store energy massively in any economically feasible way, the grid operator would be forced to invest ever larger sums into upgrading the existing grid to handle the more volatile power generation mix. these additional investment costs are probably never assumed when discussing the rapidly improving economic feasibility of renewable power such as solar and wind.
plug-it in
the solution to the biggest barrier to furhter large-scale development of renewable power is to treat the plug-in hybrid as a massive distributed power generation and storage system. all these phevs are leading the way to a merger of the two most massive energy conversion systems that humans have ever developed over time: the electric utility system and the light vehicle fleet. this would also correspond with the historic trend of converting more and more primary energy into the versatile form of electricity.
so when more and more phevs that are coming on road they would be able to provide more and more storage and backup power for renewable energy, thereby allowing the transition to a fundamentally more sustainable energy system.
so the little toyota prius is in itself only a small incremental improvement but it will eventually lead to a tipping point in the transformation of the otherwise decrepit and rotten car industry. after turning the car more and more into an electronic appliance we will now turn it into a massive energy backup power and storage system. in the future, fleet manager such as avis, hertz or mobility.ch will manage the availability of their fleet as well as sell vehicle to grid (v2g) power from the phev under their management to the grid operator. further, local utilities and/or car manufacturers will start to aggregate the collective v2g power of many phev they take under contract, e.g. provide free battery replacements to phev owners for reaping most of the power sale profits... so many new business opportunities emerging, even for the car bastards from detroit and stuttgart (by the way, the guys from japan are not treehuggers, either. recently toyota has joined the detroit three in lobbying against thougher us fuel standards as tom friedmann reports in the new york times.)
willett kempton of the university of delaware is the foremost thinker and researcher on this issue and lucidly presents and develops this idea further is his papers. he calculated with a eventual 25% penetration of phev to the overall car market in order to allow for a convergence of the two energy systems as well as to enable renewable power to come online in massive capacities. if i combine this sensible calculation with my demand-side objections to the car itself, we could envision a future with massively fewer cars. let's say we do away with the remaining 75% of the non-phevs...
i say this for the first time in my life: in this way, cars really could make sense!
next steps
we are not there yet, though. prius exists and are selling successfully. but toyota and honda, the two most successful hybrid producers, advise so far against the remodelling of their hybrid cars into plug-in hybrids since the batteries are not yet (big point) made for constant recharging and vehicle to grid operations. but some private freaks, corporate sponsored projects such as rechargeIt.org and eventually profit-driven business of existing hybrid producers (to see how they react to the new opportunity, go here) and others will bring phev and v2g business models to the market.
so, my dear friend, i would say: buy a hybrid. thereby you promote environmentally the most promising development option, rewarding the risks taken by the producers and leading to better understanding of the technology and falling unit costs. hopefully, the hybrid is one of those few incremental relative product improvements that lead the way to a disruptive innovation.
i hope though, that you will continue to play guitar and drink beer whilst riding train together with the blogger. that, by far, is the best additional fringe benefit of using public transport.
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